Fire Watch: Is America Going to War with China?

Last week, Americans looked toward the sky … they were scanning for a 200-foot-tall white orb that traversed the entire country in less than two weeks. It stalked the Midwest and floated into the Southeast like an all-seeing eye.

It was a Chinese high-altitude surveillance balloon or spy balloon, according to the Pentagon, and on the afternoon of Feb. 4, an F-22 Raptor ripped across the blue expanse and punched a Sidewinder missile through its side.

The popping of the balloon came on the heels of a leaked memo from an Air Force four-star general predicting a physical conflict between the U.S. and the People’s Republic of China starting as early as the next two years. At the time, it was rebuffed by critics as hyperbolic -- and many still consider it so.

But the balloon, the leaked memo, and an increasingly tense intelligence atmosphere between the U.S. and China raised a question in the last two weeks that in actuality has been looming for decades.

Is America going to war with China? And if so, what would it look like and when will it happen?

Main Topics

• Drew F. Lawrence and Air & Space Force reporter, Thomas Novelly, discuss the spy balloon, a General’s prediction of war, and the last two weeks of tension between the U.S and China.
• Plus, expert commentary from former senior intelligence officer and Atlantic Council senior fellow, Nicholas Eftimiades
• Co-host Rebecca Kheel and Military Veterans in Journalism fellow / reporter for the Texas Tribune, Allison P. Erickson recount the saga of an Afghan Special Forces soldier and his detention at the Southwest Border. 

Additional Resources

• Pentagon: China's Conducted Spy Balloon Program for Years
• A General Warned of an Impending War with China. Airmen Under His Command Say it Was 'Inappropriate'

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Transcript:

SPEAKERS

Gen. Mike Minihan, Nicholas Eftimiades, Drew Lawrence, KTLA Eye Witness Video, Thomas Novelly, Allison P. Erickson, Rebecca Kheel

Drew Lawrence 

Last week, Americans looked toward the sky…they were scanning for a 200-foot-tall white orb that traversed the entire country in less than two weeks. It stalked the midwest and floated into the Southeast like an all-seeing eye.  It was a Chinese high-altitude surveillance balloon or spy balloon, according to the Pentagon, and on the afternoon of February 4th an F-22 ripped across the blue expanse and punched a sidewinder missile through its side. 

KTLA Eye Witness Video 

Here we go. Boom!

Drew Lawrence 

Americans on the ground cheered as captured in an eyewitness video broadcast by KTLA. It was the first time any of them had seen a kinetic clash between the U.S. and China in recent history and happened right off the coast of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina – an explosive sign of escalating hostilities between the two countries.  The popping of the balloon came on the heels of a leaked memo from an Air Force four-star General predicting a physical conflict between the U.S and the People’s Republic of China starting as early as  the next two years. At the time, it was rebuffed by critics as hyperbolic – and many still consider it so.  But the balloon, the leaked memo, and an increasingly tense intelligence atmosphere between the U.S. and China raised a question in the last two weeks that in actuality has been looming for decades.  Is America going to war with China? And if so, what would it look like and when will it happen?  Today, we are joined by Military.com’s Air & Space force reporter, Thomas Novelly, to explain the impact of the last two weeks and the increased tension between the two countries. Plus, Nick EFTAMEEATIS, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council with decades in the intelligence space throws cool water on the idea of a physical war between the U.S. and China…but he says a different kind of conflict is likely – and Americans are just waking up to its omens.  For Military.com, my name is Drew Lawrence – it is February 10th and this is Fire Watch. Tom, thanks for joining us on Fire Watch. I want to start at two weeks ago with the leader of one of the most important logistics arms in the military and his now infamous memo that was leaked to the press. Who is this general and what did his memo say?

Thomas Novelly 

So let's kind of set up the context. Mike Minihan is a four-star general in the Air Force with more than 30 years of service under his belt. His current role is as the commander of Air Mobility Command, which is in charge of airlifts, evacuations, moving cargo and refueling for the entire Air Force. One thing to note about his career is that he also has had several posts prior to leading AMC in the Pacific, including as the Deputy Commander for U.S. Indo-Pacific Command.  So, he has some experience, and concerns, about rising competition with China. Which leads us to the memo. On Thursday, Jan. 26, thousands of airmen in Air Mobility Command received an email and attached memo from Minihan which warned that we would likely be at war with China in 2025. The memo read “I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me we will fight in 2025” and speculated that presidential elections in Taiwan and the United States in 2024 would provide the impetus for China's military to strike. But it wasn’t just that, he wanted to hammer it home that his airmen needed to be ready for anything. He also advised airmen to update their virtual Record of Emergency Data, essentially their dependents' contact information and wills. And, perhaps the most memorable line is a section where he instructed airmen with weapons qualifications to "fire a clip into a 7-meter target with the full understanding that unrepentant lethality matters most. Aim for the head."

Drew Lawrence 

This memo was leaked just a week before the Chinese spy balloon was shot down off the coast of South Carolina. I can't help but think and wanted to ask you: do you think Gen. Minihan is feeling a bit justified?

Thomas Novelly 

That's a really great point and a really great question. This type of rhetoric isn’t out of nowhere from Minihan. Most recently it was on display at the Air Force Association's Air, Space & Cyber Conference this past September where he gave a speech titled “The Mobility Manifesto” he gave this super high energy high octane speech called the mobility manifesto.

Gen. Mike Minihan 

Lethality matters most. When you can kill your enemy, every part of your life is better. Your food tastes better. Your marriage is stronger. Why is the mobility guy talking about lethality? I'm not coming at you as a C-130 driver. I'm not coming at you as a mobility officer. I'm coming at you like an airman.

Thomas Novelly 

So, he’s been saying things like this – or at least with the same over-the-top enthusiasm for awhile. Many of his servicemembers, including those I spoke with for our story at Military.com, thought it was unnecessary and wild. Also, many clowned him for calling a magazine a clip and also for saying to “aim for the head.”  It also rattled some of them a bit. They’ve been told to update their wills, to grab a gun and get ready to shoot someone in the head … all by a formal memo and random email.   But it wasn’t universally condemned. Some lawmakers and military experts praised Minihan’s memo.  Former National Security Adviser Robert C. O’Brien tweeted that the memo “demonstrates solidarity with the men & women he leads by telling them the truth that all of us at the senior level know but few are willing to utter.”  Retired Lt. Gen. David A. Deptula, dean of AFA’s Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, praised Minihan in a LinkedIn post, saying he “should be commended for the clarity in which he delivers his messages, sense of urgency, and speaking as a warfighter—not a bureaucrat, politico, or academic.”

Drew Lawrence 

That also makes me think about something Nick Eftameetas, who specialized in China when he was a senior intelligence officer and now is a senior fellow at the Atlantic council, told us when we talked to him earlier this week.

Thomas Novelly 

He made a good point about the outlook of some of these decision makers and how it can be at odds, in his view with China's goals.

Nicholas Eftimiades 

You know,  U.S. Generals have a tendency, because their main tool is a hammer, they think everything is a nail, and they think everyone else thinks that way. But China, it's quite the opposite, you know, physical exertion of force, and Taiwan is probably the last thing the Chinese government is going to do. And there is no imperative driving them to do any of this at the moment.

Drew Lawrence 

Let’s step back a little and look at the intelligence relationship between the U.S. and China overall. I want to bring in Eftimiades again, take a listen:

Nicholas Eftimiades 

We say that China has a whole of society approach to espionage. And the US does not have a whole of society approach to countering it. It is going to require recognition on the part of the American citizen to understand what's going on. And it's going to require a unified approach by the government in how to contend with China, and not just us, but with allies as well...really understand how we want this relationship to to evolve over the course of the next decade or so, and to steer China towards that evolution. So it's not a hostile relationship,

Thomas Novelly 

Right. So all the points he is referencing fall into what the U.S. has labeled the Pivot to the Pacific. This was most notably seen in 2011 under then-President Barack Obama’s administration where we saw more focus being paid to the region as opposed to the previous Bush administration’s overwhelming attention, and understandably so, on the Middle East.   I think after the evacuation from Afghanistan, we’re seeing some more concrete examples of that pivot seep into the broader public understanding, but some experts say the attention is too late and not enough.

Drew Lawrence 

As we’re shifting away from the Global War on Terror and focusing on the Pacific, is some of the rhetoric – Minihan’s for example – a way to keep those muscles relevant and funds flowing to different programs and services?

Thomas Novelly 

Absolutely. I think the more rhetoric the military and the American public hear, specifically topics underscoring the competition and explaining the stakes, will keep it top of mind for Congress. When budget season rolls around, the services will make sure the threat is understood so they get what they want and what they need.

Drew Lawrence 

So, without getting into the long, long history of U.S.-China relations, we can safely say that this contemporary intelligence race, we’ll call it, has been brewing for some time. The spy balloon appears to be a spectacular example of it.

Thomas Novelly 

Ok, so this balloon encounter is an escalation, most people agree on that. But it is not the U.S.’s first threatening dance with China’s intelligence arm. There was a major hack of government personnel information in 2014, in 2021, the FBI said they are opening a new intelligence case against China every 12 hours resulting in 1000s of cases. And Drew, this isn’t our first balloon encounter, not even in recent history.  Gen. Glen D. VanHerck, the commander of the Pentagon’s Northern Command, told reporters this week that some previous incursions by Chinese spy balloons during the Trump administration were not detected in real time, and the Pentagon learned of them only later.  So, while I think this may be the first time many Americans have heard about Chinese spy balloons, the intelligence race as you called it has been happening before our eyes and for quite some time.

Nicholas Eftimiades 

I can easily make the argument where we've been an economic war with Beijing, not we...they've been at war with us, economically, and politically, globally. The only thing that's happening now is the US is waking up to it. I mean, all these things are coming to light that there's just have stolen trillions, with a T trillions in intellectual property, how they're doing covert, subversion and influence operations against all levels of society, you know, from the Chinese diaspora living locally up to members of Congress. So and this has been going on for years.

Drew Lawrence 

I also want to say that this really put a strain on U.S.-China relations over the last week, or at least that strain was more apparent to the public eye.

Thomas Novelly 

Yeah, and outside of rhetoric, the balloon incident stopped an important diplomatic visit. Secretary of State Antony Blinken was ready to head to China to meet with President Xi Jinping. And then the spy balloon was detected and the trip was canceled.  Blinken’s visit would have marked the first high-level visit to the country by a U.S. official in more than five years. So, that cancellation stings.  The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said shooting down the balloon was “a clear overreaction and a serious violation of international practice” and according to the Washington Post, a Chinese defense ministry spokesperson said that their military reserves the right to use “necessary means” in response to similar incidents in the future.

Drew Lawrence 

Let’s talk about that future and its implications, because really that’s the question here. I asked Eftimiades some of the outcomes of this escalation and what Americans should take away from it. Here’s what he said:

Nicholas Eftimiades 

The American public first has to get the message and the understanding of where, you know, the nation states stand with each other. Because if we get this wrong, you know, if we get this relationship with China wrong, you know, it's going to have profound implications for civilization for the next, you know, 100 years, or at least 50 years, I would think as a minimum, so that it's a very big deal. For the average American, the average person, it's going to have huge impacts on their lives.

Thomas Novelly 

I think that’s totally accurate. A lot of people don’t understand what tensions between China and the U.S. are connected to and how it’s connected to everyday life – some of which are up for significant changes.  It may seem silly, but the Chinese spy balloon has renewed the conversation about security concerns with TikTok, which is owned by the Chinese company ByteDance.   While most Americans associate it with choreographed dance routines and influencer content for the youths, it's become a rallying point for Republican lawmakers who question the app’s privacy and security of personal data – claims which China denies.  That concern has seeped into the Pentagon with TikTok is not allowed on government devices; some governors are following suit. And that’s just one example – the relationship affects Hollywood movie markets, manufacturing and exports, telecommunications infrastructure, the pandemic response even, and of course, as we’ve talked about – intelligence volleys..things that can affect people every day.

Drew Lawrence 

With these tensions that seem to be leveraged in so many aspects of human and social infrastructure, it naturally leads to a question of conflict. Some like Minihan think it will be this traditional war, a kinetic clash of superpowers and others like Eftimiades say that in a way, a conflict, or competition is already happening, and is escalating and the U.S is late to the party:

Nicholas Eftimiades 

Well, I think that there'll be intense competition, I think that the world is going to kind of split out over the next decades. And, and you can look at competitive silos, China would have, theoretically, its allies, a lot in Asia, and Southeast Asia, Africa, as well, as it builds economies around those relationships and be competitive with the West. It'll be an aggressive competition between them. I mean, people ask: are we in a cold war? Well, not in the sense that we've ever known a Cold War. And you can't think and think about it that historically like that, because we have some kind of $786 billion trade relationship, which nobody ever had with the Soviet Union. So you know, but but nonetheless, we are in a we are in a conflict and China looks at it that way. And still, we're not there when people have that recognition. But in China, they've had that recognition for decades. They reflect the fact that this is a power fight. And they have done so for 20 years.

Drew Lawrence 

Stick around because up next is our reporter roundtable, with my co-host Rebecca Kheel and Navy reporter Konstantin Toropin to help us catch up on military stories over the last two weeks. Heads up to parents, if your little ones were listening to our Sesame friends, our roundtable contains some adult themes.

Rebecca Kheel 

Hi everyone my name is Rebecca Kheel, co-host of Fire Watch and congressional reporter for Military.com. Welcome to our reporter roundtable. Here’s what you may have missed since our last episode:  House Republicans have re-introduced a bill designed to let some veterans – considered by the Department of Veterans Affairs to be mentally disabled – purchase and own firearms. Currently, the VA reports some veterans to the FBI’s gun background check database, but with the Veterans 2nd Amendment Protection Act, the VA would have to get a judge’s consent before doing so.  Hundreds of soldiers – mainly active duty officers and warrant officers – were booted from healthcare services due to a technical issue in the Army’s new human resources platform. Those soldiers will likely have to re-enroll in services as the Army continues to iron out bugs in their $600 million system which was launched in January.  And after only six years of use, the USS Little Rock – a littoral combat ship riddled with defects from the outset  – will be decommissioned by the Navy in the spring. Its short and tumultuous saga illustrated issues with the service’s desire to have small and quick service vessels able to deploy close to shore. And how lawmakers looking to boost jobs can buoy troubled programs for years, even if it squeezes other parts of services' budgets.  As always, joining me is my co-host Drew Lawrence. And with us today is Allison P. Erickson, she is a Military Veterans in Journalism fellow, Army veteran and reporter for the Texas Tribune. Welcome, thanks for being here.

Drew Lawrence 

Thank you. Yeah, I appreciate it. And, Allison, I appreciate you being here because you have this really great story that you've been reporting on since the outset since the beginning. And it's about this Afghan soldier who came to the United States. But for me, it's a lot more than that, right? It's a local story. It's an international story. It is a story about war. And it's a story about immigration. Can you kind of tell us just broadly what this soldier's journey was to the United States?

Allison P. Erickson 

So Abdul Wasi Safi, he was a special forces Afghan commandos, so he served with the Afghan military...Afghan national security forces. And during the 2021 withdrawal of the United States from Afghanistan, he didn't make it on any of the flights leaving Kabul. So he was there. He tried to get on these flights, he knew that, specifically, people like him who had fought alongside US troops, would be targeted by the Taliban. And Wasi, as he's called, basically had been hearing reports about friends and others that he knew from his time in the ANSF being brutally killed. So the choice was clear to you to basically try to escape the Taliban's revenge, he needed to leave. So he hid first until he could get the proper documentation to exit the country. And he has a harrowing tale, which I wrote about for the Texas Tribune, where he crosses multiple borders, several continents, and about 10 countries to get to the southwest border between Mexico and the United States, where he was arrested and charged for basically not being in the country with the correct documentation to stay in the country.

Drew Lawrence 

And for those of us who don't know, can you kind of talk a little bit about what the border situation and policy is right now and why he was arrested when he was seeking asylum. That's what he was trying to do, right?

Allison P. Erickson 

Right. When I first spoke to him, he said he was initially trying to find Border Patrol agents or any guards at the border so that he could go to them in declare that he was trying to seek asylum, but he was actually detained and charged with a federal criminal misdemeanor. The situation at the border, the southwest border, and especially with Texas is pretty bleak, in the sense that there are millions of migrants trying to cross through the border per year. Many of them from Central America and South America but central particularly, and unfortunately, this is probably...probably one of the first cases of...one of the first, not the only cases of...an Afghan with a credible fear claim, someone who had a legitimate reason for seeking asylum in the United States couldn't get through the process because essentially, the immigration processes are completely overwhelmed. Detention facilities are overwhelmed. Border Patrol agents are overwhelmed. The governor of Texas, if you've been following along with Operation Lone Star, he sent 1000s of National Guardsmen to essentially help bolster patrolling of migrants crossing the border. So and it's it's gotten more intense and more severe. There was a temporary declaration of a public health order using title 42 to repel people back pretty much instantly keeping people from being able to declare asylum. And so Wasi was caught, sort of in this torrent of the US not having clear policies to bring Afghan allies into the United States with paperwork. It's a very interesting case, in the sense of where Wasi has been caught, sort of in this immigration mess.

Rebecca Kheel 

Yeah, I definitely think one of the most fascinating things about this story is how all these various issues that are facing America, immigration, you know, the end of the war in Afghanistan, how they all intersect. So how did you first come across Wasi's his story?

Sure, so was he has a brother, Sami-ullah Safi who was an interpreter for the United States for a solid decade. Their whole family is from Afghanistan. And so Sami as the older brother, and in 2015, his unit really advocated for him, he worked directly with US troops, and his unit really advocated for him to get a Special Immigrant Visa, particularly because of the work he was doing. So in many instances, he was there, while US troops were arresting Taliban, he was translating, or interpreting conversations between them. So they knew him. And his unit really made sure to sort of make sure that he was taken care of in the sense of having a place. So right before the collapse of the Afghan government in the US withdrawal, he received his US citizenship. So Sami lives in Houston. And when his brother was arrested at the border and detained, he really was, was reaching out to as many people as they could for assistance. So we had a source tip come through the Tribune. And it was a story that not everyone in the newsroom was sure was a Tribune story, because the Tribune is a regional digital newsroom. And this story was both a little large, but also we didn't, we didn't know that much information. Initially, it was, 'hey, an Afghan who claims to be a soldier -- we didn't know for sure -- was arrested at the US border and charged with a federal misdemeanor. And now that was the sort of underline that people showed us that, 'hey, this isn't usual, like the arrests, sure. But the charging with the federal misdemeanor criminal charges is not quite right in this scenario, and something is very strange.' So that's how we found out, Sami basically has been advocating for his brother, technically since before the collapse, but very much so with press once his brother was arrested.

Drew Lawrence 

And while Wasi's story is unique, in the sense that he is, you know, an Afghan Special Forces soldier. But I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that he his story is one of the 1000s that are out there for Afghans who are looking for a foothold in the United States after the collapse. Allison, can you kind of put Wasi's story in the context of this greater push for relocation of Afghans in the country and some of the pitfalls that not only Wasi experienced, but other Afghans have experienced?

Allison P. Erickson 

It's been interesting, as I've been reporting this to find out sort of the waves of Afghan refugees seeking asylum in the United States. Since the beginning of our involvement in Afghanistan for over the past two decades, we've had different waves of asylum seeker. As in largely for the for similar reasons. And so what we had was after the August 2021 withdrawal, and before that the US issued 10s of 1000s of Special Immigrant Visas and a pathway for those who could get to the US to begin their process to live in the United States. These were families, these were people who had helped the US in some way, shape or form, maybe they were informants, business owners, who would provide aid mostly to the United States or its allies, and they were in danger. So there's an initial flux of folks that we took care of. And then there were entire armies, the entire Afghan national security forces, 1000s of members were left behind.

Drew Lawrence 

Rebecca, you cover Congress for Military.com. And I want to ask, because Wasi's story comes at a really tumultuous time, in Congress, for Afghans, and specifically, I'm talking about the Afghan Adjustment Act. Can you just tell us what that act is, and what happened to it in December as this story in Texas was unfolding?

Rebecca Kheel 

Most of the Afghans who were brought over to the United States, in the initial wave after the collapse, were brought to the United States on what's known as humanitarian parole. And that is just a temporary status, that let them come to the United States quickly without going through, you know, these very long immigration processes. But that expires in two years from when they were brought. So it expires this coming August. So there was an effort in Congress, really backed by a lot of veterans and also the Afghans themselves, to give them permanent status. And that was called the Afghan Adjustment Act, the Afghan Adjustment Act would also have created some increased vetting processes that these Afghans would have to go through in order to get green cards. And it will also sought to streamline the Special Immigrant Visa Program. So the Africans who are still stuck in Afghanistan and in danger of retribution by the Taliban could more easily get to the United States. But that did not make it into any legislation before the end of the year. So because it's a new Congress, advocates have to start from scratch. And quite frankly, there really hasn't been any activity on it since Congress restarted or at least, not publicly. So, you know, I think this is still something that that the veterans of the Afghanistan War, and the Afghans themselves are still very much trying to get through. But we haven't seen much movement since December.

Drew Lawrence 

What was kind of the turning point for the federal government to drop charges against Wasi? And what is he doing now? What's happening with him now?

Allison P. Erickson 

The biggest difference, I would say that the turning point was the bipartisan approach, and with the more senior member in Congress, really weighing in and making personal phone calls. I think that until a more senior representative weighed in personally, it was just a story in the news, and it wasn't an issue that was actionable yet. That's my take on it so far. What's been interesting in Wasi's case, is how much he went through his story is very compelling him and his brother stories are very compelling. They've done a lot in service to their nation and to the United States. So I would say that that was the biggest turning point was was having a major player, get involved.

Rebecca Kheel 

So in your story on Wasi being released, you have a quote from him where he says, 'I will live the American dream' and in doing some reporting on Afghan refugees myself, I know, the idea the American dream can be elusive, you know, they struggled to find jobs, housing, etc. What does this allure of the American dream to Wasi mean and also to the Afghans who are still stuck behind?

Allison P. Erickson 

I know at least in Wasi's case, the early things he observed so was he is now released into the custody of his brother. I should clarify that that was a major update. His charges were dropped by the Del Rio West Texas court and what's interesting is, was he went within within a matter of days from behind prison cell walls to the Galleria Mall in Houston. So the amount of exposure to sort of what could be in many senses I think he found both overwhelming but also very inspiring to go from detention to the very, very fancy mall. So we'll see what happens. I am actually very excited to see what Wasi and Sami will continue to contribute moving forward.

Drew Lawrence 

Thank you so much for listening to this special episode of Fire Watch. Thank you to our guests, Nick Eftimetis and Allison P. Erickson. Thanks also to my co-host, Rebecca Kheel and Air & Space Force Reporter Thomas Novelly. Credit to executive producers Zachary Fryer-Biggs and Amy Bushatz. If you liked this episode and want to let us know, give us a rating – wherever you get your podcasts. And as always, thanks for listening.