The United States’ impending resumption of nuclear testing after more than three decades is being touted by President Donald Trump as a method to challenge adversaries. Nuclear experts question the timing behind such aspirations, telling Military.com that yield-producing nuclear testing has not occurred since 1998 and that an international framework already exists to deter threats.
Trump made the surprise announcement ordering the U.S. military to resume nuclear testing after 33 years while onboard U.S. Marine One last Thursday, while on his way to meet with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in Busan, South Korea, as part of a days-long policy trip throughout Asia.
"Because of other countries' testing programs, I have instructed the Department of War to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “That process will begin immediately.
"Russia is second, and China is a distant third, but will be even within 5 years,” he added.
Military.com reached out for comment to the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) and Department of Energy (DOE).
“There is no evidence that Russia, China or North Korea (or any nuclear state whatsoever) has conducted explosive tests recently; North Korea was the last [one] about a decade ago,” Nikolai Sokov, senior fellow at the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation, told Military.com. “There are, indeed, suspicions as always but all serious experts agree this has not been the case. There has not been even indirect evidence that far-fetched scenarios of such tests are substantiated.”
Trump's Testing Claims
Trump was asked by CBS News’ Norah O’Donnell about his order to resume domestic testing during an interview Friday on 60 Minutes, which aired this past Sunday.
"Well, we have more nuclear weapons than any other country. Russia's second. China's a very distant third, but they'll be even in five years,” Trump said. “You know, they're makin' 'em rapidly, and I think we should do something about denuclearization, which is gonna be some—and I did actually discuss that with both President [Vladimir] Putin and President Xi. Denuclearization's a very big thing. We have enough nuclear weapons to blow up the world 150 times.”
The president also claimed that “North Korea's testing constantly,” and that “other countries are testing,” specifically mentioning Pakistan.
“We're the only country that doesn't test, and I wanna be—I don't wanna be the only country that doesn't test,” he added. “Russia's testing, and China's testing, but they don't talk about it. You know, we're a open [sic] society. We're different. We talk about it.”
Energy Secretary Chris Wright clarified the administration's intentions Sunday during an appearance on Fox News, saying that there will not be nuclear explosions but "what we call non-critical explosions" that shouldn't pose worries about mushroom clouds.
"Americans near historic test sites such as the Nevada National Security Site have no cause for concern," Wright said. "So you're testing all the other parts of a nuclear weapon to make sure they deliver the appropriate geometry, and they set up the nuclear explosion."
'Reciprocal Moves' From China, Russia
Trump’s remarks perplexed Andrew Facini, senior fellow in The Janne E. Nolan Center for Strategic Weapons, who said that besides North Korea no state has conducted yield-producing nuclear testing since 1998. The “robust international, decentralized framework” provided through the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) verifies that testing doesn’t occur.
“Taking the [president’s] announcement at face value, it's a sharp degradation in the norm against explosive nuclear testing just to have the president talk about it in this way, and it could lead to the U.S. losing its advantages in high-end nuclear knowledge,” Facini told Military.com.
Chinese and Russian officials both rebuked Trump's statements about their nations conducting routine testing.
Fancini said the U.S. when compared to its adversaries has a “massive lead” in non-yield producing nuclear testing methods, including through the use of cutting-edge technologies like laser fusion ignition and advanced computer simulation–methods that allow the DOE to verify that the nuclear stockpile and all weapons designs are safe and effective without the need to produce a nuclear explosion.
“If the U.S. were to go ahead with explosive nuclear testing, it would not yield critical new data nor enable a fundamentally different approach to how the country is able to design or build new nuclear weapons,” he said. “However, it would surely result in reciprocal moves in both China and Russia, which would likely harm U.S. national security in the long run.
“China especially would have a great opportunity to use explosive testing as a way to catch up, and potentially design and deploy more modern warheads to further diversify its future arsenal.”
He alluded to Beijing’s lack of pursuance of new or different warheads after stopping testing in 1996 due to the CTBT. While China has increased non-explosive methods like laser fusion and supercomputing, Fancini said they have primarily kept with their more than 30-year-old designs—even as they build up their missile fleet.
China Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said at a press conference in Beijing that as a "responsible nuclear-weapons state, China has always...upheld a self-defense nuclear strategy and abided by its commitment to suspend nuclear testing," according to the BBC.
'Zero Benefit'
Nikolai Sokov agreed with Fancini, saying that the CTBTO’s passive verification system, or the International Monitoring System, works "quite well" and provides on-site inspections to clarify any testing uncertainties.
“It is difficult to say why President Trump has decided that other countries are conducting tests,” Sokov said. “Certainly, the United States will continue subcritical testing (DOE has already announced that) as will other states.
“As things stand now, the United States (and Russia) stand to obtain zero benefit from the resumption of explosive testing; the biggest winners will be China as well as North Korea, India, Pakistan—all of which lack sufficient databases from previous tests to ensure reliability of their stockpiles.
There exists a simple rule of thumb, he said, which is to simply not test.
“I sincerely hope that the issue of testing will somehow dissipate with little damage to the international standing of the United States,” Sokov added.
