Will the Military Draft Come Back?

Amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and sudden U.S. involvement in conflicts in the region, more Americans have started to wonder -- both quietly and publicly -- "Is there going to be a draft in 2025?" and, "What are the odds of the draft coming back?"

Google searches within the United States for the phrase "military draft" began spiking in mid-June, reflecting a growing unease about global instability and questions surrounding U.S. military readiness.

Although there is currently no active draft, the Selective Service System remains in place as a contingency measure. All male U.S. citizens and residents ages 18 through 25 are still legally required to register. The Selective Service System does not apply to women, who do not have to register.

Could the Draft Come Back in 2025?

Many observers consider the return of the draft unlikely. The U.S. military has operated as an all-volunteer force for more than 50 years, and any attempt to reinstate the draft requires a major act of Congress. Such a move would undoubtedly spark intense public and political debate.

Think of the Selective Service as a kind of backup plan. It's there just in case the country ever faces a national emergency and needs to quickly grow the military. But even then, bringing back the draft isn't something that could necessarily happen overnight. It would require formal legislation passed by both the House and Senate and signed by the president.

There's no existing authority -- even for a sitting president -- to bring back the draft unilaterally without that legal action. Any attempt to bypass Congress would be unconstitutional and almost certainly trigger massive legal, political and public pushback, including court challenges.

Until that happens, registering is a precaution, not a signal that anyone's about to get called up.

Read More: Everything You Need to Know About the Military Draft

Legal Framework for Reinstating the Draft

Any attempt to bring back the draft would typically be in response to the declaration of a national emergency or a large-scale war that would overburden the U.S. military's ability to fill its ranks through the usual recruiting routes.

Here's how the process would typically unfold:

1. Legislative Action: Congress would need to pass a new law explicitly authorizing the reactivation of conscription. This cannot be done through executive order or military directive alone.
2. Presidential Approval: The president would then sign the bill into law, giving the Selective Service System the authority to begin the conscription process.
3. Selective Service Activation: Once authorized, the Selective Service System would be up and running, starting with a national lottery to determine the order in which registered men (ages 18-25) would be called up. The process would prioritize younger age groups first (usually 20-year-olds), with separate categories for deferments, exemptions and conscientious objectors.
4. Induction and Training: Those drafted would get their orders to show up for physical exams and processing. Each enlistee would then get an assignment to a training base if they are deemed fit for service. The system is designed to induct draftees within 193 days of authorization.

No Current Plans for Reactivation

In 2024, The Washington Post reported that "a cluster of influential former administration officials and GOP lawmakers ... have mused aloud about a national service mandate and other measures to remedy what they see as a 'crisis' facing the all-volunteer military." However, Donald Trump responded that it was a "ridiculous idea."

The same year, in an analysis for Foreign Policy, political scientist Raphael S. Cohen wrote: "After decades of becoming increasingly rare, the military draft is back in the debate."

Cohen noted that, despite the fact that modern warfare often emphasizes technology and drones, many countries are reintroducing or reconsidering the military draft, because large-scale conflicts still require a significant number of people. He pointed out the U.S. is not immune to the discussion, especially amid rising global conflicts and occasional recruitment shortfalls, particularly in fields such as cybersecurity and aviation.

However, as of now, the U.S. has no active efforts or legislation in place to reinstate the draft. While the Selective Service System remains operational as a precautionary framework, it has not been used since 1973, when the United States shifted to an all-volunteer military force.

The Department of Defense has consistently expressed strong support for the volunteer model without the need for compulsory service. Despite occasional public anxiety during times of global tension or military escalation, there have been no formal moves by Congress or the executive branch to bring back the draft.

Related: 6 Reasons You Probably Won't Be Conscripted, Even if We Bring Back the Draft

What Could Trigger a Return to the Draft?

Although returning to the draft wouldn't happen lightly or without significant cause, possible scenarios that might trigger it include:

• A large-scale ground war that requires a big increase in troop numbers
• Multiple military conflicts going on around the world simultaneously, stretching U.S. military resources thin
• A domestic national emergency that demands more troops quickly
• Prolonged recruitment shortfalls where voluntary enlistment consistently fails to meet force requirements

Even if any of these circumstances occurred, the process to bring back the draft would involve considerable debate and legal steps.

How Would a Modern Draft Work?

If the U.S. were to reinstate the draft, the process is designed to be structured and systematic, ensuring fairness and transparency. Here's how it might unfold:

The Lottery System

Who would get drafted first? The Selective Service System is set up to conduct a random lottery to determine the order in which individuals are called for induction. Here's an illustration of how it works:

• Birthdate Drawing: A machine randomly selects a birthdate from the 365 days of the year.
• Sequence Number Assignment: Simultaneously, a second machine assigns a number between 1 and 365 (366 if it's a leap year) to that birthdate.
• Pairing: The birthdate and sequence number are paired to establish the order of call for individuals born on that date.

For example, if Aug. 4 is drawn first and the number 32 is drawn second, men turning 20 on Aug. 4 would be called for induction after those with numbers 1 through 31. This process continues until all birthdates are paired with sequence numbers.

For more detailed information, visit the official Selective Service System page on the lottery process.

Classification and Evaluation

At what age would you no longer be drafted? The Selective Service states that once a man turns 26, "he is over the age of liability."

Who cannot be drafted? Simply put, people who are medically unfit, already serving, conscientious objectors (with approval) or otherwise legally exempt cannot be drafted.

If a draft were to return, those selected would undergo a classification process to determine their eligibility and to see whether there are any deferments or exemptions. The process would look something like this:

• Physical and Mental Assessments: Registrants would be evaluated at Military Entrance Processing Stations (MEPS) to check their physical and mental fitness for military service.
• Eligibility Verification: Factors such as age, health and legal status would be reviewed to confirm eligibility.
• Deferments and Exemptions: Depending on the person, some may qualify for deferments (temporary postponements) or exemptions (permanent exclusions) from service.

Again, classification would only occur if Congress and the president decide to resume a draft. At that time, those qualified for induction would have the opportunity to file claims for exemptions, deferments and postponements from military service.

Appeals and Conscientious Objection

Those who believe they should not be inducted due to personal beliefs or circumstances have avenues to appeal:

• Local Draft Boards: Registrants could present their case to a local board, which will decide whether to grant or deny their claim.
• Appeal Process: If the local board denies the claim, the individual could appeal to a district appeal board. If the district board were to deny the claim, and the vote wasn't unanimous, further appeal to the national appeal board would be possible.

Those whose objections are based on moral or religious grounds -- aka conscientious objectors -- could (if approved) be assigned to noncombatant roles within the military or, in some cases, to civilian service contributing to the national health, safety or interest.

For more information on conscientious objection, visit the Conscientious Objectors page on the Selective Service System's website.

You may be wondering, "What happens if you get drafted and refuse to go?" Refusing to comply with a draft order can lead to legal penalties, including fines and possible jail time.

Why Are People Worried the Draft Might Come Back?

In recent years, a whole host of global events, political tensions and information spread online have stirred public concerns that the U.S. might reinstate the military draft. It's easy to understand why some people feel uneasy about the possibility.

Several things are adding fuel to this fire, including global conflicts, challenges facing the military, and misinformation circulating widely on the internet and social media.

Here are some of the key reasons fueling the concern:

• Instability and crises in the Middle East, drawing U.S. attention and resources.
• The war between Ukraine and Russia, which has raised fears about escalating global conflicts and U.S. involvement.
• Heightened tensions with China over Taiwan, as regional instability could have serious international consequences.
• Military recruitment shortfalls, where voluntary enlistment numbers sometimes fall below targets, raising questions about future manpower.
• Social media misinformation and rumors, which can exaggerate or falsely claim the draft is being reinstated.

The Likelihood of the Return of the Draft

While the Selective Service System remains fully operational, the return of the military draft is considered unlikely under current circumstances. That said, the legal framework and infrastructure are in place to resume conscription if a major national emergency or large-scale, multi-theater war demands it.

What to know about the draft:

• The U.S. draft has not been active since 1973. Registration was suspended in early 1975 and reinstated in 1980.
• All men ages 18-25 are still legally required to register with the Selective Service System.
• Reinstating the draft would require a new act of Congress and the president's approval.
• Despite online rumors and speculation, there is currently no plan or indication that a draft will be reinstated.
• The Selective Service System maintains a rapid activation plan to be ready if an emergency arises.

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